{"effect":{"id":"abdominal_pain","name":"Abdominal pain","severity":"moderate","description":"Upper abdominal pain or discomfort. Usually mild but persistent pain should be investigated to rule out more serious conditions like pancreatitis.","clinicalRates":{"low":0.03,"medium":0.05,"high":0.07},"clinicalRatesNote":"A fixed reference table dated 2026-04-12, not derived from this corpus and carrying no per-effect citation of its own — see `sources` on ?q=effect&id=<id> for what was recorded behind each effect. It reaches published numbers two ways. (1) As the sole clinical base for an effect with no eligible corpus rate point — exactly the effects whose pooled corpus estimate is null (corpusClinical here, rateBase.clinical.pooledEstimate on the per-effect endpoint); the predictor marks these isFallback: true. (2) Since 2026-08-28, as a dose-tier rescale ratio applied to the corpus's OWN pooled rate wherever that tier's pooled clinical records are mostly dose-untagged; isFallback stays false in that case, and the predictor's clinical.basis states both endpoints and the dose-tag denominator while clinical.pooledPercentage carries the corpus rate before any adjustment. Full per-source detail: rateBase.clinical via ?q=effect&id=<id>. WITHDRAWN 2026-09-03 (decision literature-fallback-clinical-rate-2026-08-28, option c) for emotional_blunting only: this table had no rate-stating source at all for it, so its clinicalRate fields are null here and its predictor track carries `available: false` with no percentage — see clinicalRatesWithdrawn on ?q=effect&id=emotional_blunting. RE-SOURCED 2026-09-03 (same decision, option b) for fatigue only: its three tier values are one figure, 0.11, from the FDA Wegovy prescribing information revised 06/2026 (Table 3: fatigue incl. asthenia 11% on 2.4 mg, N=2,116, vs 5% placebo, N=1,261; URL in its sources) — the label reports no per-dose-tier rate, so no gradient is published for it, and it is a semaglutide figure applied at every dose tier regardless of molecule, as this whole table is. RE-SOURCED 2026-09-04 (decision pancreatitis-hairloss-dizziness-triple-derivation-2026-09-03) for hair_loss, dizziness and pancreatitis: their 2026-04-12 triples (1–3%, 2–5%, 0.5–1.2%) had no recorded derivation and their cited trial pages state no such figures; each is now one value at every tier from the same FDA Wegovy label — hair_loss 0.03 (Table 3: 3% on 2.4 mg, N=2,116, vs 1% placebo), dizziness 0.08 (Table 3: 8% vs 4%), and pancreatitis 0.002, which is NOT a proportion of patients like every other value in this table but the label's incidence RATE of 0.2 acute-pancreatitis cases per 100 patient-years of Wegovy exposure (4 adjudicated cases vs 1 on placebo, section 5) — read it with that unit. Figures served before 2026-09-04 for these three effects should not be cited.","confidenceNote":"`sourceDiversity` (formerly `confidence`, kept as a deprecated alias with the same value) measures SOURCE DIVERSITY, not precision: it is derived only from distinctSources (≤1 very_low, ≤3 low, ≤9 moderate, ≤24 high, ≥25 very_high) and is computed without reference to the confidence interval. It can read `moderate` on an estimate whose interval spans nearly the whole range — always read ciLowPct/ciHighPct alongside it, and treat a wide interval as the binding statement about how well we know the rate. The converse does NOT hold, and until 2026-09-11 nothing here said so: a NARROW interval is not evidence of a well-known rate. τ² (the between-study heterogeneity term) is 0 by construction when a single source entry contributes, so such an estimate publishes that one study's sampling interval and nothing else — read `intervalBasis` on every pooled block (`sampling_only_single_source` vs `sampling_plus_between_study`, with `intervalNote`/`intervalNoteNl` spelling it out) before reading a tight range as precision.","samplingNote":"Registry sampling bias, disclosed 2026-09-10 and corrected 2026-09-16: registry rows collected before 2026-09-10 through the rotation path were capped at the five highest-percentage arm rows per trial, which selects on the rate being measured (19 of the 25 trials with stored registry rows at the time; the six pinned pivotal trials — SURMOUNT-1, SELECT, STEP 1, STEP 2, SURPASS-CVOT, retatrutide phase 2 — were never affected). The collector was fixed 2026-09-10 and the 19 trials were re-collected in full between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-16 (every tracked non-placebo arm row the registry posts is stored, verified against the live registry on 2026-09-16), so each study's entry in a pooled estimate is now the mean of every arm the registry posts for that term, not of its five highest. Method, per-trial measurements and the correction record: §4 Limitations and correction-log items 25 and 32 of the published methodology, https://github.com/saurabhgoyal75/magistra-predictor/blob/main/preprint/magistra-methodology.md.","modifiers":{"femaleFactor":1.15,"ageFactor65plus":1.2,"giHistoryFactor":1.8,"diabetesFactor":1,"firstMonthFactor":1.8},"modifiersNote":"Odds ratios hand-coded at the 2026-04-12 seed with no per-modifier citation recorded — treat each as an expert-coded prior, not a sourced estimate. The FDR-corrected empirical estimator runs daily but no effect yet meets its evidence bar (model config v2 — its one post-seed change, 2026-09-04, re-sourced four static base rates by hand; zero empirical modifiers applied). See ?q=help for the full methodology note.","reportingFrequency":{"mentions":4,"distinctReports":26,"sharePct":15.4,"platforms":["reddit.com","drugs.com"],"note":"Share of distinct community reports (one row per source URL) that mention this effect. Counts only reports hosted on the community platform itself, and — corrected 2026-08-29 — only Reddit posts from the GLP-1, weight-management and diabetes subreddits we collect from: the scraper's subreddit restriction was not holding, and 159 of the previous 185 reports were posts matched on a symptom word in unrelated communities (r/gallbladders, r/AskDocs, r/pregnant). News-aggregator results are excluded, see platforms. The remaining base is small and cannot currently grow (Reddit has blocked our collector since 2026-05-28), so read every share with its distinctReports denominator. Not an incidence rate; not comparable to clinicalRates."},"userReportedSeverity":"Users describe it as a dull ache in the upper stomach, especially after eating. Most say it's tolerable but uncomfortable. Important: sharp or severe pain is different — seek help immediately.","onsetDays":"Not stated by any clinical source on file.","durationWeeks":"Not stated by any clinical source on file.","managementTip":"Eat smaller meals, avoid spicy and fatty foods. If pain is severe, persistent, or radiates to the back, see a doctor immediately to rule out pancreatitis.","sources":[{"name":"STEP-1 Trial (Wilding et al., NEJM 2021)","type":"clinical","url":"https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183","weight":0.3},{"name":"STEP-2 Trial (Davies et al., Lancet 2021)","type":"clinical","url":"https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00213-0/fulltext","weight":0.3},{"name":"Reddit r/Ozempic user reports on stomach pain (2024-2026)","type":"user_report","weight":0.4}]},"dataPointCount":203,"rateBase":{"note":"Only externally citable, non-duplicated rates support an estimate. Shares of spontaneous adverse-event reports (FAERS) are reported separately — they are not incidence. A source marked rateKind: \"serious_ae\" states a rate from a trial registry's SERIOUS adverse-events table for a term posted in no other table of the same arm — a real stated figure, but a floor on all-cause incidence, since the registry lists non-serious events only above the trial's reporting threshold.","clinical":{"statedRates":115,"distinctSources":16,"sourceEntries":16,"pooledEstimate":{"ratePct":6.5,"ciLowPct":1,"ciHighPct":42,"statedRates":115,"distinctSources":16,"sourceEntries":16,"seriousAeSources":0,"rateKindNote":"","rateKindNoteNl":"","intervalBasis":"sampling_plus_between_study","intervalNote":"","intervalNoteNl":"","confidence":"high","sourceDiversity":"high"},"confidenceNote":"`sourceDiversity` (formerly `confidence`, kept as a deprecated alias with the same value) measures SOURCE DIVERSITY, not precision: it is derived only from distinctSources (≤1 very_low, ≤3 low, ≤9 moderate, ≤24 high, ≥25 very_high) and is computed without reference to the confidence interval. It can read `moderate` on an estimate whose interval spans nearly the whole range — always read ciLowPct/ciHighPct alongside it, and treat a wide interval as the binding statement about how well we know the rate. The converse does NOT hold, and until 2026-09-11 nothing here said so: a NARROW interval is not evidence of a well-known rate. τ² (the between-study heterogeneity term) is 0 by construction when a single source entry contributes, so such an estimate publishes that one study's sampling interval and nothing else — read `intervalBasis` on every pooled block (`sampling_only_single_source` vs `sampling_plus_between_study`, with `intervalNote`/`intervalNoteNl` spelling it out) before reading a tight range as precision.","samplingNote":"Registry sampling bias, disclosed 2026-09-10 and corrected 2026-09-16: registry rows collected before 2026-09-10 through the rotation path were capped at the five highest-percentage arm rows per trial, which selects on the rate being measured (19 of the 25 trials with stored registry rows at the time; the six pinned pivotal trials — SURMOUNT-1, SELECT, STEP 1, STEP 2, SURPASS-CVOT, retatrutide phase 2 — were never affected). The collector was fixed 2026-09-10 and the 19 trials were re-collected in full between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-16 (every tracked non-placebo arm row the registry posts is stored, verified against the live registry on 2026-09-16), so each study's entry in a pooled estimate is now the mean of every arm the registry posts for that term, not of its five highest. Method, per-trial measurements and the correction record: §4 Limitations and correction-log items 25 and 32 of the published methodology, https://github.com/saurabhgoyal75/magistra-predictor/blob/main/preprint/magistra-methodology.md.","seriousAeSources":0,"sources":[{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Obes — Abdominal pain","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04184622#adverse-events","rate":0.057,"sampleSize":636,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of LY3437943 in Participants Who Have Obesity or Are — Abdominal pain","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04881760#adverse-events","rate":0.027,"sampleSize":69,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — STEP 1: Research Study Investigating How Well Semaglutide Wo — Abdominal pain","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03548935#adverse-events","rate":0.097,"sampleSize":1306,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of Orforglipron in Adult Participants With Obesity o — Abdominal pain","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05872620#adverse-events","rate":0.057,"sampleSize":331,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of Orforglipron (LY3502970) in Adult Participants Wi — Abdominal pain","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05971940#adverse-events","rate":0.029,"sampleSize":143,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of Once-Daily Oral Orforglipron (LY3502970) in Japan — Abdominal pain","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05931380#adverse-events","rate":0.023,"sampleSize":61,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study to Compare Tablets and Capsules of Orforglipron (LY3 — Abdominal pain","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06440980#adverse-events","rate":0.017,"sampleSize":215,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of LY3502970 in Chinese Participants With Obesity or — Abdominal pain","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06023095#adverse-events","rate":0.3,"sampleSize":10,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Drug-Drug Interaction (DDI) Study of Orforglipron With Car — Abdominal pain","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06370728#adverse-events","rate":0.018,"sampleSize":30,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of LY3502970 in Japanese Participants With Type 2 Di — Abdominal pain","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05086445#adverse-events","rate":0.014,"sampleSize":18,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Multiple Dose Study of LY3502970 in Healthy Overweight and — Abdominal pain","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05841238#adverse-events","rate":0.013,"sampleSize":52,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of LY3502970 in Healthy Participants — Abdominal pain","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03929744#adverse-events","rate":0.028,"sampleSize":45,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Long-term Safety Study of Orforglipron (LY3502970) in Part — Abdominal pain","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06010004#adverse-events","rate":0.015,"sampleSize":135,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Research Study to Compare a New Medicine Oral Semaglutide  — Abdominal pain","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04596631#adverse-events","rate":0.091,"sampleSize":66,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — Semaglutide Treatment, Appetite, and Eating Behavior: Long-t — Abdominal pain","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05548647#adverse-events","rate":0.16,"sampleSize":72,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of Orforglipron (LY3502970) Compared With Semaglutid — Abdominal pain","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06045221#adverse-events","rate":0.042,"sampleSize":426,"rateKind":"incidence"}],"excluded":{"spontaneous_report_share":7,"seed_unverified":6,"no_rate":10},"usesPublishedFallback":false},"community":{"statedRates":0,"distinctSources":0,"sourceEntries":0,"excluded":{"no_rate":60,"seed_unverified":4,"aggregator_result":1},"usesPublishedFallback":true},"spontaneousReportShares":[{"source":"FDA FAERS — semaglutide — ABDOMINAL PAIN UPPER","url":"https://api.fda.gov/drug/event.json?search=patient.drug.openfda.generic_name:\"semaglutide\"","shareOfReports":0.03,"reports":2951},{"source":"FDA FAERS — liraglutide — ABDOMINAL PAIN UPPER","url":"https://api.fda.gov/drug/event.json?search=patient.drug.openfda.generic_name:\"liraglutide\"","shareOfReports":0.028,"reports":1425},{"source":"FDA FAERS — dulaglutide — ABDOMINAL PAIN UPPER","url":"https://api.fda.gov/drug/event.json?search=patient.drug.openfda.generic_name:\"dulaglutide\"","shareOfReports":0.023,"reports":2428},{"source":"FDA FAERS — tirzepatide — ABDOMINAL PAIN UPPER","url":"https://api.fda.gov/drug/event.json?search=patient.drug.openfda.generic_name:\"tirzepatide\"","shareOfReports":0.02,"reports":3709},{"source":"FDA FAERS — orforglipron — ABDOMINAL PAIN UPPER","url":"https://api.fda.gov/drug/event.json?search=patient.drug.openfda.generic_name:\"orforglipron\"","shareOfReports":0.031,"reports":36},{"source":"FDA FAERS — orforglipron — ABDOMINAL DISTENSION","url":"https://api.fda.gov/drug/event.json?search=patient.drug.openfda.generic_name:\"orforglipron\"","shareOfReports":0.029,"reports":33},{"source":"FDA FAERS — orforglipron — ABDOMINAL DISCOMFORT","url":"https://api.fda.gov/drug/event.json?search=patient.drug.openfda.generic_name:\"orforglipron\"","shareOfReports":0.023,"reports":27}]},"dataPointsBySource":{"clinical":131,"regulatory":7,"user_report":55,"news":10},"sampleDataPoints":[{"sourceName":"Reddit r/AskDocs — Gastrointestinal Distress, Hot Showers and Vasovagal Syncope","sourceType":"user_report","sourceUrl":"https://reddit.com/r/AskDocs/comments/1sfi2uq/gastrointestinal_distress_hot_showers_and/","extractedRate":null,"extractedSeverity":null,"extractedSampleSize":1,"extractionConfidence":"medium","scrapedAt":"2026-04-08T04:02:11.008Z","excludedFromPublished":"off-topic source: not a GLP-1/weight-management/diabetes community report"},{"sourceName":"Reddit r/AskDocs — Periods every two months- no answers","sourceType":"user_report","sourceUrl":"https://reddit.com/r/AskDocs/comments/1sfhvix/periods_every_two_months_no_answers/","extractedRate":null,"extractedSeverity":"moderate","extractedSampleSize":1,"extractionConfidence":"high","scrapedAt":"2026-04-08T04:02:13.939Z","excludedFromPublished":"off-topic source: not a GLP-1/weight-management/diabetes community report"},{"sourceName":"FDA FAERS — semaglutide — ABDOMINAL PAIN UPPER","sourceType":"regulatory","sourceUrl":"https://api.fda.gov/drug/event.json?search=patient.drug.openfda.generic_name:\"semaglutide\"","extractedRate":0.03,"extractedSeverity":null,"extractedSampleSize":99460,"extractionConfidence":"high","scrapedAt":"2026-04-08T04:02:37.698Z"},{"sourceName":"FDA FAERS — liraglutide — ABDOMINAL PAIN UPPER","sourceType":"regulatory","sourceUrl":"https://api.fda.gov/drug/event.json?search=patient.drug.openfda.generic_name:\"liraglutide\"","extractedRate":0.028,"extractedSeverity":null,"extractedSampleSize":51432,"extractionConfidence":"high","scrapedAt":"2026-04-08T04:02:54.493Z"},{"sourceName":"Reddit r/Celiac — Positive Anti-DGP IgA, Negative tTG IgA– False positive?","sourceType":"user_report","sourceUrl":"https://reddit.com/r/Celiac/comments/1sgeiik/positive_antidgp_iga_negative_ttg_iga_false/","extractedRate":null,"extractedSeverity":"mild","extractedSampleSize":null,"extractionConfidence":"high","scrapedAt":"2026-04-09T04:01:35.077Z","excludedFromPublished":"off-topic source: not a GLP-1/weight-management/diabetes community report"}],"lastUpdated":"2026-09-16"}