{"effect":{"id":"diarrhea","name":"Diarrhoea","severity":"mild","description":"Loose or watery stools, sometimes with urgency. Second most common GI side effect.","clinicalRates":{"low":0.1,"medium":0.18,"high":0.25},"clinicalRatesNote":"A fixed reference table dated 2026-04-12, not derived from this corpus and carrying no per-effect citation of its own — see `sources` on ?q=effect&id=<id> for what was recorded behind each effect. It reaches published numbers two ways. (1) As the sole clinical base for an effect with no eligible corpus rate point — exactly the effects whose pooled corpus estimate is null (corpusClinical here, rateBase.clinical.pooledEstimate on the per-effect endpoint); the predictor marks these isFallback: true. (2) Since 2026-08-28, as a dose-tier rescale ratio applied to the corpus's OWN pooled rate wherever that tier's pooled clinical records are mostly dose-untagged; isFallback stays false in that case, and the predictor's clinical.basis states both endpoints and the dose-tag denominator while clinical.pooledPercentage carries the corpus rate before any adjustment. Full per-source detail: rateBase.clinical via ?q=effect&id=<id>. WITHDRAWN 2026-09-03 (decision literature-fallback-clinical-rate-2026-08-28, option c) for emotional_blunting only: this table had no rate-stating source at all for it, so its clinicalRate fields are null here and its predictor track carries `available: false` with no percentage — see clinicalRatesWithdrawn on ?q=effect&id=emotional_blunting. RE-SOURCED 2026-09-03 (same decision, option b) for fatigue only: its three tier values are one figure, 0.11, from the FDA Wegovy prescribing information revised 06/2026 (Table 3: fatigue incl. asthenia 11% on 2.4 mg, N=2,116, vs 5% placebo, N=1,261; URL in its sources) — the label reports no per-dose-tier rate, so no gradient is published for it, and it is a semaglutide figure applied at every dose tier regardless of molecule, as this whole table is. RE-SOURCED 2026-09-04 (decision pancreatitis-hairloss-dizziness-triple-derivation-2026-09-03) for hair_loss, dizziness and pancreatitis: their 2026-04-12 triples (1–3%, 2–5%, 0.5–1.2%) had no recorded derivation and their cited trial pages state no such figures; each is now one value at every tier from the same FDA Wegovy label — hair_loss 0.03 (Table 3: 3% on 2.4 mg, N=2,116, vs 1% placebo), dizziness 0.08 (Table 3: 8% vs 4%), and pancreatitis 0.002, which is NOT a proportion of patients like every other value in this table but the label's incidence RATE of 0.2 acute-pancreatitis cases per 100 patient-years of Wegovy exposure (4 adjudicated cases vs 1 on placebo, section 5) — read it with that unit. Figures served before 2026-09-04 for these three effects should not be cited.","confidenceNote":"`sourceDiversity` (formerly `confidence`, kept as a deprecated alias with the same value) measures SOURCE DIVERSITY, not precision: it is derived only from distinctSources (≤1 very_low, ≤3 low, ≤9 moderate, ≤24 high, ≥25 very_high) and is computed without reference to the confidence interval. It can read `moderate` on an estimate whose interval spans nearly the whole range — always read ciLowPct/ciHighPct alongside it, and treat a wide interval as the binding statement about how well we know the rate. The converse does NOT hold, and until 2026-09-11 nothing here said so: a NARROW interval is not evidence of a well-known rate. τ² (the between-study heterogeneity term) is 0 by construction when a single source entry contributes, so such an estimate publishes that one study's sampling interval and nothing else — read `intervalBasis` on every pooled block (`sampling_only_single_source` vs `sampling_plus_between_study`, with `intervalNote`/`intervalNoteNl` spelling it out) before reading a tight range as precision.","samplingNote":"Known upward bias, not yet corrected: registry rows collected before 2026-09-10 through the rotation path were capped at the five highest-percentage arm rows per trial, which selects on the rate being measured. 19 of the 25 trials with stored registry rows are affected; the six pinned pivotal trials (SURMOUNT-1, SELECT, STEP 1, STEP 2, SURPASS-CVOT, retatrutide phase 2) are not, because they emit every non-placebo arm. Pooled clinical estimates that draw on an affected trial therefore read HIGH by an amount we have not yet quantified per effect. The collector was fixed 2026-09-10; the stored rows await a re-collection. Method and per-trial measurements: §4 Limitations and correction-log item 25 of the published methodology, https://github.com/saurabhgoyal75/magistra-predictor/blob/main/preprint/magistra-methodology.md.","modifiers":{"femaleFactor":1.1,"ageFactor65plus":1.2,"giHistoryFactor":1.5,"diabetesFactor":1,"firstMonthFactor":2},"modifiersNote":"Odds ratios hand-coded at the 2026-04-12 seed with no per-modifier citation recorded — treat each as an expert-coded prior, not a sourced estimate. The FDR-corrected empirical estimator runs daily but no effect yet meets its evidence bar (model config v2 — its one post-seed change, 2026-09-04, re-sourced four static base rates by hand; zero empirical modifiers applied). See ?q=help for the full methodology note.","reportingFrequency":{"mentions":9,"distinctReports":26,"sharePct":34.6,"platforms":["reddit.com","drugs.com"],"note":"Share of distinct community reports (one row per source URL) that mention this effect. Counts only reports hosted on the community platform itself, and — corrected 2026-08-29 — only Reddit posts from the GLP-1, weight-management and diabetes subreddits we collect from: the scraper's subreddit restriction was not holding, and 159 of the previous 185 reports were posts matched on a symptom word in unrelated communities (r/gallbladders, r/AskDocs, r/pregnant). News-aggregator results are excluded, see platforms. The remaining base is small and cannot currently grow (Reddit has blocked our collector since 2026-05-28), so read every share with its distinctReports denominator. Not an incidence rate; not comparable to clinicalRates."},"userReportedSeverity":"Users report it varies widely — some experience it daily for 1-2 weeks, others barely notice. Severity seems dose-dependent.","onsetDays":"Not stated by any clinical source on file.","durationWeeks":"Not stated by any clinical source on file.","managementTip":"Stay very hydrated. Avoid dairy and high-fibre foods initially. If it persists beyond 3 weeks, contact your doctor.","sources":[{"name":"SURMOUNT-5 Trial (NEJM 2025)","type":"clinical","url":"https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2416394","weight":0.3},{"name":"Trustpilot reviews of weight management services (2025-2026)","type":"user_report","weight":0.4},{"name":"Washington University side effects study (2025)","type":"news","url":"https://medicine.washu.edu/news/study-identifies-benefits-risks-linked-to-popular-weight-loss-drugs/","weight":0.3}]},"dataPointCount":237,"rateBase":{"note":"Only externally citable, non-duplicated rates support an estimate. Shares of spontaneous adverse-event reports (FAERS) are reported separately — they are not incidence. A source marked rateKind: \"serious_ae\" states a rate from a trial registry's SERIOUS adverse-events table for a term posted in no other table of the same arm — a real stated figure, but a floor on all-cause incidence, since the registry lists non-serious events only above the trial's reporting threshold.","clinical":{"statedRates":81,"distinctSources":20,"sourceEntries":20,"pooledEstimate":{"ratePct":16.6,"ciLowPct":3,"ciHighPct":58,"statedRates":81,"distinctSources":20,"sourceEntries":20,"seriousAeSources":0,"rateKindNote":"","rateKindNoteNl":"","intervalBasis":"sampling_plus_between_study","intervalNote":"","intervalNoteNl":"","confidence":"high","sourceDiversity":"high"},"confidenceNote":"`sourceDiversity` (formerly `confidence`, kept as a deprecated alias with the same value) measures SOURCE DIVERSITY, not precision: it is derived only from distinctSources (≤1 very_low, ≤3 low, ≤9 moderate, ≤24 high, ≥25 very_high) and is computed without reference to the confidence interval. It can read `moderate` on an estimate whose interval spans nearly the whole range — always read ciLowPct/ciHighPct alongside it, and treat a wide interval as the binding statement about how well we know the rate. The converse does NOT hold, and until 2026-09-11 nothing here said so: a NARROW interval is not evidence of a well-known rate. τ² (the between-study heterogeneity term) is 0 by construction when a single source entry contributes, so such an estimate publishes that one study's sampling interval and nothing else — read `intervalBasis` on every pooled block (`sampling_only_single_source` vs `sampling_plus_between_study`, with `intervalNote`/`intervalNoteNl` spelling it out) before reading a tight range as precision.","samplingNote":"Known upward bias, not yet corrected: registry rows collected before 2026-09-10 through the rotation path were capped at the five highest-percentage arm rows per trial, which selects on the rate being measured. 19 of the 25 trials with stored registry rows are affected; the six pinned pivotal trials (SURMOUNT-1, SELECT, STEP 1, STEP 2, SURPASS-CVOT, retatrutide phase 2) are not, because they emit every non-placebo arm. Pooled clinical estimates that draw on an affected trial therefore read HIGH by an amount we have not yet quantified per effect. The collector was fixed 2026-09-10; the stored rows await a re-collection. Method and per-trial measurements: §4 Limitations and correction-log item 25 of the published methodology, https://github.com/saurabhgoyal75/magistra-predictor/blob/main/preprint/magistra-methodology.md.","seriousAeSources":0,"sources":[{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of LY3502970 in Chinese Participants With Obesity or — Diarrhoea","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06023095#adverse-events","rate":0.65,"sampleSize":10,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) Compared With Dulaglutide — Diarrhoea","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04255433#adverse-events","rate":0.218,"sampleSize":6647,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — Semaglutide Treatment, Appetite, and Eating Behavior: Long-t — Diarrhea","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05548647#adverse-events","rate":0.288,"sampleSize":72,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Adult Participants Wit — Diarrhoea","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05564039#adverse-events","rate":0.178,"sampleSize":143,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Research Study to Compare a New Medicine Oral Semaglutide  — Diarrhoea","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04596631#adverse-events","rate":0.227,"sampleSize":66,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of Orforglipron (LY3502970) in Adult Participants Wi — Diarrhoea","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05971940#adverse-events","rate":0.219,"sampleSize":143,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"PubMed — Tirzepatide versus Semaglutide Once Weekly in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes.","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34170647/","rate":0.12,"sampleSize":1879,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of Orforglipron in Adult Participants With Obesity o — Diarrhoea","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05872620#adverse-events","rate":0.245,"sampleSize":331,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"PubMed — Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists in Plastic Surgery: Perioperative Considerations and Safety Protocols.","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41445996/","rate":0.11,"sampleSize":null,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Obes — Diarrhoea","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04184622#adverse-events","rate":0.222,"sampleSize":636,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — Semaglutide Effects on Heart Disease and Stroke in Patients  — Diarrhoea","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03574597#adverse-events","rate":0.106,"sampleSize":8803,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — STEP 1: Research Study Investigating How Well Semaglutide Wo — Diarrhoea","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03548935#adverse-events","rate":0.315,"sampleSize":1306,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — Research Study Investigating How Well Semaglutide Works in P — Diarrhoea","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03552757#adverse-events","rate":0.216,"sampleSize":403,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of LY3437943 in Participants Who Have Obesity or Are — Diarrhoea","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04881760#adverse-events","rate":0.146,"sampleSize":69,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of Once-Daily Oral Orforglipron (LY3502970) in Japan — Diarrhoea","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05931380#adverse-events","rate":0.128,"sampleSize":61,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of LY3502970 in Japanese Participants With Type 2 Di — Diarrhoea","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05086445#adverse-events","rate":0.038,"sampleSize":18,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Long-term Safety Study of Orforglipron (LY3502970) in Part — Diarrhoea","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06010004#adverse-events","rate":0.11,"sampleSize":135,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of LY3502970 in Healthy Participants — Diarrhoea","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03929744#adverse-events","rate":0.007,"sampleSize":45,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — Research Study to Investigate How Well Semaglutide Tablets T — Diarrhoea","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05132088#adverse-events","rate":0.164,"sampleSize":134,"rateKind":"incidence"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Multiple Dose Study of LY3502970 in Healthy Overweight and — Diarrhoea","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05841238#adverse-events","rate":0.025,"sampleSize":52,"rateKind":"incidence"}],"excluded":{"seed_unverified":3,"spontaneous_report_share":7,"no_rate":35},"usesPublishedFallback":false},"community":{"statedRates":0,"distinctSources":0,"sourceEntries":0,"excluded":{"seed_unverified":7,"no_rate":103,"aggregator_result":1},"usesPublishedFallback":true},"spontaneousReportShares":[{"source":"FDA FAERS — semaglutide — DIARRHOEA","url":"https://api.fda.gov/drug/event.json?search=patient.drug.openfda.generic_name:\"semaglutide\"","shareOfReports":0.079,"reports":6516},{"source":"FDA FAERS — tirzepatide — DIARRHOEA","url":"https://api.fda.gov/drug/event.json?search=patient.drug.openfda.generic_name:\"tirzepatide\"","shareOfReports":0.055,"reports":6720},{"source":"FDA FAERS — liraglutide — DIARRHOEA","url":"https://api.fda.gov/drug/event.json?search=patient.drug.openfda.generic_name:\"liraglutide\"","shareOfReports":0.078,"reports":3345},{"source":"FDA FAERS — dulaglutide — DIARRHOEA","url":"https://api.fda.gov/drug/event.json?search=patient.drug.openfda.generic_name:\"dulaglutide\"","shareOfReports":0.056,"reports":5737},{"source":"FDA FAERS — exenatide — DIARRHOEA","url":"https://api.fda.gov/drug/event.json?search=patient.drug.openfda.generic_name:\"exenatide\"","shareOfReports":0.029,"reports":2743},{"source":"FDA FAERS — lixisenatide — DIARRHOEA","url":"https://api.fda.gov/drug/event.json?search=patient.drug.openfda.generic_name:\"lixisenatide\"","shareOfReports":0.021,"reports":72},{"source":"FDA FAERS — orforglipron — DIARRHOEA","url":"https://api.fda.gov/drug/event.json?search=patient.drug.openfda.generic_name:\"orforglipron\"","shareOfReports":0.054,"reports":62}]},"dataPointsBySource":{"clinical":119,"regulatory":7,"user_report":78,"news":33},"sampleDataPoints":[{"sourceName":"SURMOUNT-5 Trial (NEJM 2025)","sourceType":"clinical","sourceUrl":"https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2416394","extractedRate":0.1,"extractedSeverity":"mild","extractedSampleSize":200,"extractionConfidence":"high","scrapedAt":"2026-04-06T11:45:17.713Z"},{"sourceName":"SURMOUNT-5 Trial (NEJM 2025)","sourceType":"clinical","sourceUrl":"https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2416394","extractedRate":0.18,"extractedSeverity":"mild","extractedSampleSize":500,"extractionConfidence":"high","scrapedAt":"2026-04-06T11:45:17.713Z"},{"sourceName":"SURMOUNT-5 Trial (NEJM 2025)","sourceType":"clinical","sourceUrl":"https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2416394","extractedRate":0.25,"extractedSeverity":"mild","extractedSampleSize":300,"extractionConfidence":"high","scrapedAt":"2026-04-06T11:45:17.713Z"},{"sourceName":"Trustpilot reviews of weight management services (2025-2026)","sourceType":"user_report","sourceUrl":"https://magistra.health/nl/science#diarrhea","extractedRate":0.1,"extractedSeverity":"mild","extractedSampleSize":200,"extractionConfidence":"high","scrapedAt":"2026-04-06T11:45:17.713Z","excludedFromPublished":"off-topic source: not a GLP-1/weight-management/diabetes community report"},{"sourceName":"Trustpilot reviews of weight management services (2025-2026)","sourceType":"user_report","sourceUrl":"https://magistra.health/nl/science#diarrhea","extractedRate":0.18,"extractedSeverity":"mild","extractedSampleSize":500,"extractionConfidence":"high","scrapedAt":"2026-04-06T11:45:17.713Z","excludedFromPublished":"off-topic source: not a GLP-1/weight-management/diabetes community report"}],"lastUpdated":"2026-09-14"}