{"effect":{"id":"pancreatitis","name":"Pancreatitis (rare)","severity":"severe","description":"Inflammation of the pancreas. RARE but SERIOUS. Symptoms: severe stomach pain radiating to the back, nausea, vomiting. Stop treatment immediately and seek medical help.","clinicalRates":{"low":0.002,"medium":0.002,"high":0.002},"clinicalRatesNote":"A fixed reference table dated 2026-04-12, not derived from this corpus and carrying no per-effect citation of its own — see `sources` on ?q=effect&id=<id> for what was recorded behind each effect. It reaches published numbers two ways. (1) As the sole clinical base for an effect with no eligible corpus rate point — exactly the effects whose pooled corpus estimate is null (corpusClinical here, rateBase.clinical.pooledEstimate on the per-effect endpoint); the predictor marks these isFallback: true. (2) Since 2026-08-28, as a dose-tier rescale ratio applied to the corpus's OWN pooled rate wherever that tier's pooled clinical records are mostly dose-untagged; isFallback stays false in that case, and the predictor's clinical.basis states both endpoints and the dose-tag denominator while clinical.pooledPercentage carries the corpus rate before any adjustment. Full per-source detail: rateBase.clinical via ?q=effect&id=<id>. WITHDRAWN 2026-09-03 (decision literature-fallback-clinical-rate-2026-08-28, option c) for emotional_blunting only: this table had no rate-stating source at all for it, so its clinicalRate fields are null here and its predictor track carries `available: false` with no percentage — see clinicalRatesWithdrawn on ?q=effect&id=emotional_blunting. RE-SOURCED 2026-09-03 (same decision, option b) for fatigue only: its three tier values are one figure, 0.11, from the FDA Wegovy prescribing information revised 06/2026 (Table 3: fatigue incl. asthenia 11% on 2.4 mg, N=2,116, vs 5% placebo, N=1,261; URL in its sources) — the label reports no per-dose-tier rate, so no gradient is published for it, and it is a semaglutide figure applied at every dose tier regardless of molecule, as this whole table is. RE-SOURCED 2026-09-04 (decision pancreatitis-hairloss-dizziness-triple-derivation-2026-09-03) for hair_loss, dizziness and pancreatitis: their 2026-04-12 triples (1–3%, 2–5%, 0.5–1.2%) had no recorded derivation and their cited trial pages state no such figures; each is now one value at every tier from the same FDA Wegovy label — hair_loss 0.03 (Table 3: 3% on 2.4 mg, N=2,116, vs 1% placebo), dizziness 0.08 (Table 3: 8% vs 4%), and pancreatitis 0.002, which is NOT a proportion of patients like every other value in this table but the label's incidence RATE of 0.2 acute-pancreatitis cases per 100 patient-years of Wegovy exposure (4 adjudicated cases vs 1 on placebo, section 6.1 Adverse Reactions, under Other Adverse Reactions in Adults and/or Pediatric Patients; the section 5.2 warning of the same name states no figure) — read it with that unit. Figures served before 2026-09-04 for these three effects should not be cited.","confidenceNote":"`sourceDiversity` (formerly `confidence`, kept as a deprecated alias with the same value) measures SOURCE DIVERSITY, not precision: it is derived only from distinctSources (≤1 very_low, ≤3 low, ≤9 moderate, ≤24 high, ≥25 very_high) and is computed without reference to the confidence interval. It can read `moderate` on an estimate whose interval spans nearly the whole range — always read ciLowPct/ciHighPct alongside it, and treat a wide interval as the binding statement about how well we know the rate. The converse does NOT hold, and until 2026-09-11 nothing here said so: a NARROW interval is not evidence of a well-known rate. τ² (the between-study heterogeneity term) is 0 by construction when a single source entry contributes, so such an estimate publishes that one study's sampling interval and nothing else — read `intervalBasis` on every pooled block (`sampling_only_single_source` vs `sampling_plus_between_study`, with `intervalNote`/`intervalNoteNl` spelling it out) before reading a tight range as precision.","samplingNote":"Registry sampling bias, disclosed 2026-09-10 and corrected 2026-09-16: registry rows collected before 2026-09-10 through the rotation path were capped at the five highest-percentage arm rows per trial, which selects on the rate being measured (19 of the 25 trials with stored registry rows at the time; the six pinned pivotal trials — SURMOUNT-1, SELECT, STEP 1, STEP 2, SURPASS-CVOT, retatrutide phase 2 — were never affected). The collector was fixed 2026-09-10 and the 19 trials were re-collected in full between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-16 (every tracked non-placebo arm row the registry posts is stored, verified against the live registry on 2026-09-16), so each study's entry in a pooled estimate is now the mean of every arm the registry posts for that term, not of its five highest. Method, per-trial measurements and the correction record: §4 Limitations and correction-log items 25 and 32 of the published methodology, https://github.com/saurabhgoyal75/magistra-predictor/blob/main/preprint/magistra-methodology.md.","armOverlapNote":"Repeated participants behind the row COUNT, restated 2026-09-26 for the corpus state deployed to production that day (1,286 eligible stated rates; first measured against production 2026-09-21). The flagged-study list itself was last re-verified live against ClinicalTrials.gov on 2026-09-26 by the cycle that deployed this corpus state; the count and percentage figures below are re-derived from that same corpus, not a fresh production query. `statedRates` counts stored rate rows, and a registry row is one ARM of one trial — so a crossover or dose-escalation study whose periods the registry posts as separate event groups over the SAME people contributes several rows for one cohort. The test needs no judgement and cannot false-positive: sum the at-risk denominators of the arms we store for one study and one effect, and if that sum exceeds the trial's own posted enrolment, some participants sit inside more than one of our rows. The same 6 of now 37 registry studies with live rated rows fail it — NCT05841238 (11.5x), NCT06440980 (7.1x), NCT03929744 (2.2x), NCT06370728 (1.9x), NCT05891496 (1.4x), NCT05086445 (1.1x); all six are completed studies posting an ACTUAL enrolment, so the denominator of the test is a final count and not a target — and 726 of 1,278 live registry rate rows (56.8%) come from them, which is 726 of the 1,286 eligible stated rates this site publishes site-wide (56.5%). It does NOT move the percentages: one-entry-per-source collapsing plus sample-size weighting mean that excluding all six changes every published pooled estimate by at most 0.2 percentage points (nausea, fatigue, abdominal_pain and dizziness). It does move the n, and now for only one effect the source-diversity grade, very_high -> high: without those six studies headache reads 49 rates / 22 studies instead of 135/28. (The 2026-09-24 reading was 62.7% of 1,158 rows, at most 0.6 points, and five grade changes — nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, constipation and reduced_appetite very_high -> high. A registry batch stored 2026-09-26 (SCALE Obesity and Prediabetes, REWIND, ELIXA, LEADER, and the rest of SURMOUNT-2 — none of the five among the flagged six) added enough independent sources to those five effects that none still depends on the six for its grade; only headache still does.) Read statedRates as “rate rows we hold”, never as “independent observations”, and read the interval as the statement about how well the rate is known. Both measurement scripts are published for inspection in the methodology mirror (https://github.com/saurabhgoyal75/magistra-predictor/tree/main/methodology) — they read our own store, so they are the audit trail rather than something a reader can run, but the test above needs nothing from us: every flagged study's arms and its posted enrolment are in the ClinicalTrials.gov record whose URL `sources` already gives you.","modifiers":{"femaleFactor":1,"ageFactor65plus":1.5,"giHistoryFactor":3,"diabetesFactor":1.3,"firstMonthFactor":1.2},"modifiersNote":"Odds ratios hand-coded at the 2026-04-12 seed with no per-modifier citation recorded — treat each as an expert-coded prior, not a sourced estimate. The empirical estimator runs daily and 12 of the 15 tracked effects now clear its 10-eligible-point minimum, but zero empirical modifiers have been applied and none can be under the current extraction: all 1,111 eligible rate points behind those fits carry sex 'unspecified' and none carries an age band including 65 (measured 2026-09-18), so both fitted covariates are constant and every coefficient fits at 0. Model config is v7 (2026-09-23); its post-seed changes re-sourced four static base rates (v2, 2026-09-04) and aligned narrative fields with their sources (v3, v5, v6, v7). See ?q=help for the full methodology note.","reportingFrequency":{"mentions":0,"distinctReports":42,"sharePct":0,"platforms":["reddit.com","drugs.com"],"note":"Share of distinct community reports (one row per source URL) that mention this effect. Counts only reports hosted on the community platform itself, and — corrected 2026-08-29 — only Reddit posts from the GLP-1, weight-management and diabetes subreddits we collect from: the scraper's subreddit restriction was not holding, and 159 of the previous 185 reports were posts matched on a symptom word in unrelated communities (r/gallbladders, r/AskDocs, r/pregnant). Widened 2026-09-25: ten GLP-1 drug communities the configured list had omitted (r/mounjarouk, r/TirzepatideRX, r/Retatrutide and seven others) were added to it, taking the denominator from 26 to 42. News-aggregator results are excluded, see platforms. The remaining base is small and cannot currently grow (Reddit has blocked our collector since 2026-05-28), so read every share with its distinctReports denominator. Not an incidence rate; not comparable to clinicalRates."},"userReportedSeverity":"Withdrawn 2026-09-20: the account of what users report that stood here was typed at the 2026-04-12 seed and has no supporting report in this corpus. The community reporting frequency published beside this field is the measured figure — a share of our distinct community reports, not an incidence rate. This withdrawal does not change the clinical description or the emergency guidance for this effect.","onsetDays":"Can occur at any point during treatment","durationWeeks":"Requires immediate medical attention","managementTip":"If you experience severe stomach pain radiating to your back: STOP the medication immediately and go to the emergency room. Do not wait.","sources":[{"name":"FDA Wegovy (semaglutide) prescribing information, revised 06/2026, section 6.1 Adverse Reactions, under Other Adverse Reactions in Adults and/or Pediatric Patients — Acute Pancreatitis (the section 5.2 warning of the same name states no figure): 4 adjudicated cases in Wegovy-treated adults (0.2 per 100 patient-years) vs 1 on placebo (<0.1 per 100 patient-years) — a rate per patient-year, not a proportion of patients","type":"clinical","url":"https://dailymed.nlm.nih.gov/dailymed/drugInfo.cfm?setid=ee06186f-2aa3-4990-a760-757579d8f77b","weight":0.3},{"name":"FDA adverse event reports (2024-2025)","type":"news","weight":0.3},{"name":"Patient advocacy forums reporting (2024-2026)","type":"user_report","weight":0.4}]},"dataPointCount":58,"dataPointCountIncludingSeed":68,"dataPointCountNote":"dataPointCount excludes the 2026-04-12 seed rows (10 per effect, 150 corpus-wide) and therefore equals this effect's entry in dataPointsByEffect on ?q=overview. Corrected 2026-09-20: until then this field counted them and was 10 higher than that breakdown for every one of the 15 effects, while the overview's own total excluded them — the same scoping gap corrected in meta.totalPoints on 2026-09-11 and on /en/sources on 2026-09-10, in the one consumer nobody had re-read. dataPointCountIncludingSeed is the raw stored count, published beside it so the audit trail stays visible; the seed rows themselves are hand-written 2026-04-12 entries whose sourceUrl points back at magistra.health, and they support no published figure.","rateBase":{"note":"Only externally citable, non-duplicated rates support an estimate. Shares of spontaneous adverse-event reports (FAERS) are reported separately — they are not incidence. A source marked rateKind: \"serious_ae\" states a rate from a trial registry's SERIOUS adverse-events table for a term posted in no other table of the same arm — a real stated figure, but a floor on all-cause incidence, since the registry lists non-serious events only above the trial's reporting threshold.","clinical":{"statedRates":13,"distinctSources":4,"sourceEntries":6,"pooledEstimate":{"ratePct":0.1,"ciLowPct":0,"ciHighPct":1,"statedRates":13,"distinctSources":4,"sourceEntries":6,"seriousAeSources":2,"rateKindNote":"2 of 4 sources are SERIOUS adverse-event rates from a trial registry's SAE table, which understate all-cause incidence","rateKindNoteNl":"2 van 4 bronnen zijn percentages voor ERNSTIGE bijwerkingen uit de SAE-tabel van een studieregister, wat de incidentie over alle ernstgraden onderschat","intervalBasis":"sampling_plus_between_study","intervalNote":"","intervalNoteNl":"","confidence":"moderate","sourceDiversity":"moderate","phaseMix":{"PHASE3":4}},"pooledEstimateObesityOnly":null,"pooledEstimateObesityOnlyNote":"The whole-class pooledEstimate above restricted to rows from trials tagged `extractedIndication: \"obesity\"` in indicationMix — the identical pooling function and sample-size weighting, not a different statistical method or a corrected whole-class rate. The obesity tag marks weight-management trials: SELECT, whose participants had overweight or obesity with established cardiovascular disease, is tagged cvot and is not included. Null when the obesity-tagged subset holds fewer than 10 distinct sources (a bar set for this field; see indicationMix for the obesity subset's source count). Where this differs materially from the whole-class figure, the registry data cannot say whether that is a population difference or a difference in how trials were run. For example, for nausea, our own analysis (/en/blog/glp1-nausea-what-the-label-and-placebo-arms-report) found the same molecule at the same dose posting 44.1% in a weight-management trial (STEP 1) against 18.1% in a cardiovascular-outcomes trial of the same drug (SELECT); outcomes trials, run over years with major cardiovascular events as the primary endpoint, may solicit gastrointestinal symptoms less systematically than shorter weight-management trials. Read both figures; neither is more correct. The gap is consistent with differences in how trials asked about symptoms, and the registry cannot rule out a population difference; it is not evidence that obesity changes incidence.","confidenceNote":"`sourceDiversity` (formerly `confidence`, kept as a deprecated alias with the same value) measures SOURCE DIVERSITY, not precision: it is derived only from distinctSources (≤1 very_low, ≤3 low, ≤9 moderate, ≤24 high, ≥25 very_high) and is computed without reference to the confidence interval. It can read `moderate` on an estimate whose interval spans nearly the whole range — always read ciLowPct/ciHighPct alongside it, and treat a wide interval as the binding statement about how well we know the rate. The converse does NOT hold, and until 2026-09-11 nothing here said so: a NARROW interval is not evidence of a well-known rate. τ² (the between-study heterogeneity term) is 0 by construction when a single source entry contributes, so such an estimate publishes that one study's sampling interval and nothing else — read `intervalBasis` on every pooled block (`sampling_only_single_source` vs `sampling_plus_between_study`, with `intervalNote`/`intervalNoteNl` spelling it out) before reading a tight range as precision.","samplingNote":"Registry sampling bias, disclosed 2026-09-10 and corrected 2026-09-16: registry rows collected before 2026-09-10 through the rotation path were capped at the five highest-percentage arm rows per trial, which selects on the rate being measured (19 of the 25 trials with stored registry rows at the time; the six pinned pivotal trials — SURMOUNT-1, SELECT, STEP 1, STEP 2, SURPASS-CVOT, retatrutide phase 2 — were never affected). The collector was fixed 2026-09-10 and the 19 trials were re-collected in full between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-16 (every tracked non-placebo arm row the registry posts is stored, verified against the live registry on 2026-09-16), so each study's entry in a pooled estimate is now the mean of every arm the registry posts for that term, not of its five highest. Method, per-trial measurements and the correction record: §4 Limitations and correction-log items 25 and 32 of the published methodology, https://github.com/saurabhgoyal75/magistra-predictor/blob/main/preprint/magistra-methodology.md.","phaseMixNote":"Distinct ClinicalTrials.gov sources behind this pooled estimate, by trial phase (keys \"PHASE1\"..\"PHASE4\"). A non-registry source (a paper, FAERS, a community report) contributes to none of these buckets, so the values need not sum to distinctSources — read a large gap between their sum and distinctSources as \"mostly non-registry evidence\", not as missing data. A phase 1 study enrols healthy volunteers or a small dose-finding cohort, not the population the effect will be prescribed to; weigh a pooled rate resting mostly on PHASE1 sources accordingly. Per-source phase is also published on rateBase.clinical.sources[].phase.","armOverlapNote":"Repeated participants behind the row COUNT, restated 2026-09-26 for the corpus state deployed to production that day (1,286 eligible stated rates; first measured against production 2026-09-21). The flagged-study list itself was last re-verified live against ClinicalTrials.gov on 2026-09-26 by the cycle that deployed this corpus state; the count and percentage figures below are re-derived from that same corpus, not a fresh production query. `statedRates` counts stored rate rows, and a registry row is one ARM of one trial — so a crossover or dose-escalation study whose periods the registry posts as separate event groups over the SAME people contributes several rows for one cohort. The test needs no judgement and cannot false-positive: sum the at-risk denominators of the arms we store for one study and one effect, and if that sum exceeds the trial's own posted enrolment, some participants sit inside more than one of our rows. The same 6 of now 37 registry studies with live rated rows fail it — NCT05841238 (11.5x), NCT06440980 (7.1x), NCT03929744 (2.2x), NCT06370728 (1.9x), NCT05891496 (1.4x), NCT05086445 (1.1x); all six are completed studies posting an ACTUAL enrolment, so the denominator of the test is a final count and not a target — and 726 of 1,278 live registry rate rows (56.8%) come from them, which is 726 of the 1,286 eligible stated rates this site publishes site-wide (56.5%). It does NOT move the percentages: one-entry-per-source collapsing plus sample-size weighting mean that excluding all six changes every published pooled estimate by at most 0.2 percentage points (nausea, fatigue, abdominal_pain and dizziness). It does move the n, and now for only one effect the source-diversity grade, very_high -> high: without those six studies headache reads 49 rates / 22 studies instead of 135/28. (The 2026-09-24 reading was 62.7% of 1,158 rows, at most 0.6 points, and five grade changes — nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, constipation and reduced_appetite very_high -> high. A registry batch stored 2026-09-26 (SCALE Obesity and Prediabetes, REWIND, ELIXA, LEADER, and the rest of SURMOUNT-2 — none of the five among the flagged six) added enough independent sources to those five effects that none still depends on the six for its grade; only headache still does.) Read statedRates as “rate rows we hold”, never as “independent observations”, and read the interval as the statement about how well the rate is known. Both measurement scripts are published for inspection in the methodology mirror (https://github.com/saurabhgoyal75/magistra-predictor/tree/main/methodology) — they read our own store, so they are the audit trail rather than something a reader can run, but the test above needs nothing from us: every flagged study's arms and its posted enrolment are in the ClinicalTrials.gov record whose URL `sources` already gives you.","seriousAeSources":2,"drugMix":[{"drug":"tirzepatide","statedRates":8,"distinctStudies":2,"sourceEntries":3,"pooledWeightPct":7.3},{"drug":"orforglipron","statedRates":3,"distinctStudies":1,"sourceEntries":1,"pooledWeightPct":0.7},{"drug":"semaglutide","statedRates":2,"distinctStudies":1,"sourceEntries":2,"pooledWeightPct":92}],"drugMixNote":"Which molecules the rows behind this estimate describe. statedRates counts eligible rate rows — the same n published beside the estimate — and pooledWeightPct is the share of the weighted mean that drug's collapsed source entries actually carry, after one-entry-per-source collapsing and sample-size weighting; an entry holding two molecules' rows (a head-to-head trial's arms) splits its weight by row share, since its rate is the plain mean of those rows (corrected 2026-09-23: until then the whole entry went to one arm's molecule, publishing SURPASS-CVOT's dulaglutide arm as tirzepatide). The two diverge widely: a drug can hold most of the rows and little of the weight when its rows are many small arms of a few trials. Read pooledWeightPct for what moves the percentage and statedRates for what the n is made of. Per-drug distinctStudies can sum above this estimate's own distinctSources — a trial with a comparator arm posts rows under two molecules and counts once under each. The drug is the one the row's own arm or source names; \"(unlabelled)\" is a row whose source names no molecule.","indicationMix":[{"indication":"obesity","statedRates":8,"distinctStudies":2,"sourceEntries":3,"pooledWeightPct":7.3},{"indication":"t2d","statedRates":3,"distinctStudies":1,"sourceEntries":1,"pooledWeightPct":0.7},{"indication":"cvot","statedRates":2,"distinctStudies":1,"sourceEntries":2,"pooledWeightPct":92}],"indicationMixNote":"Which population the rows behind this estimate were trialled in, read from each ClinicalTrials.gov record (re-read for every stored registry study on 2 October 2026): obesity/overweight (obesity, including Phase 1 studies in healthy volunteers with obesity), type 2 diabetes (t2d), a cardiovascular-outcomes trial whose registered primary outcome is a composite of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction and non-fatal stroke, ELIXA adding unstable-angina hospitalisation (cvot: ELIXA, LEADER, REWIND, SUSTAIN-6, SELECT, SOUL, SURPASS-CVOT — their participants had type 2 diabetes with established cardiovascular disease or high cardiovascular risk or, in SELECT, established cardiovascular disease with overweight or obesity and without diabetes), type 1 diabetes as an adjunct to insulin (t1d_adjunct), or other (healthy-volunteer, Alzheimer's disease and kidney-disease studies). statedRates counts eligible rate rows; pooledWeightPct is the share of the weighted mean that indication's collapsed source entries carry, after one-entry-per-source collapsing and sample-size weighting (same method as drugMix). Read pooledWeightPct, not the row counts: the outcomes trials are few but very large, and carry most of the weight behind the common gastrointestinal estimates (63% for nausea on 2 October 2026). \"(unspecified)\" is the few eligible rows from non-registry sources, which state no structured conditions. The rates themselves are read correctly from the registry regardless of indication; this field discloses composition, it does not change eligibility or weighting.","windowMix":[{"window":"53-104w","statedRates":5,"distinctStudies":2,"sourceEntries":2,"pooledWeightPct":1.3},{"window":">104w","statedRates":8,"distinctStudies":2,"sourceEntries":4,"pooledWeightPct":98.7}],"medianWindowWeeks":124.5,"windowMixNote":"Over which counting window the rows behind this estimate were recorded, read from each trial registry record's own adverse-event time frame: <=26 weeks, 27-52, 53-104, or over 104. statedRates counts eligible rate rows and pooledWeightPct is the share of the weighted mean each window's collapsed source entries carry (same method as drugMix). A registry rate is the share of an arm with the event at least once within that trial's window, so the window changes the number: short Phase 1 studies supply many rows but little weight, and most of the weight on most effects comes from trials of a year or longer. medianWindowWeeks is the median window across the distinct studies that state one; a record stating several windows (e.g. different arms followed for different lengths) is filed under the longest. \"(window not stated)\" covers every non-registry source and the registry records that post no adverse-event time frame; it is never read as zero weeks. This field discloses composition; it does not change eligibility or re-weight anything.","thresholdMix":{"seriousTableRows":8,"atLeast5PctThresholdRows":0,"allEventRows":5,"otherThresholdRows":0,"notStatedRows":0},"thresholdNote":"Which listing threshold the trials behind this estimate used for their non-serious adverse-event table. Most of the registry trials we pool list a non-serious event only when it exceeded 5% in at least one arm (atLeast5PctThresholdRows); some list every event (allEventRows). A trial in which a term stayed at or under 5% in every arm contributes no row for it, so for effects pooled near or below 5% the base can mostly include only trials where the term was listed: the count of trials is a floor on how many trials saw the effect, and the pooled rate is likely higher than it would be across all trials. Rows read from a serious adverse-events table carry no such threshold and are counted apart (seriousTableRows). notStatedRows are non-registry sources (e.g. published abstracts), which state no listing threshold. Counts are eligible rate rows, the same n published beside the estimate.","sourcesNote":"One entry per source (for a ClinicalTrials.gov study, per study and adverse-event term). When a source posts the term for several arms, `rate` is the plain mean of those arm rates and `sampleSize` is the at-risk n of its LARGEST single arm. It is not the study's total enrolment, and rate × sampleSize is not a participant count. Each arm's own events and n are in the ClinicalTrials.gov record at `url`. `sampleSize` is null when the source states no n.","sources":[{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Obes — Pancreatitis","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04184622#adverse-events","rate":0.001,"sampleSize":636,"rateKind":"serious_ae","phase":"PHASE3"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Obes — Pancreatitis acute","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04184622#adverse-events","rate":0.002,"sampleSize":636,"rateKind":"serious_ae","phase":"PHASE3"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — Semaglutide Effects on Heart Disease and Stroke in Patients  — Pancreatitis","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03574597#adverse-events","rate":0.001,"sampleSize":8803,"rateKind":"serious_ae","phase":"PHASE3"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — Semaglutide Effects on Heart Disease and Stroke in Patients  — Pancreatitis acute","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03574597#adverse-events","rate":0.001,"sampleSize":8803,"rateKind":"serious_ae","phase":"PHASE3"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — A Long-term Safety Study of Orforglipron (LY3502970) in Part — Pancreatitis acute","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06010004#adverse-events","rate":0.002,"sampleSize":135,"rateKind":"incidence","phase":"PHASE3"},{"name":"ClinicalTrials.gov results — Obstructive Sleep Apnea Master Protocol GPIF: A Study of… — Pancreatitis acute","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05412004#adverse-events","rate":0.004,"sampleSize":119,"rateKind":"incidence","phase":"PHASE3"}],"excluded":{"seed_unverified":3,"spontaneous_report_share":2,"no_rate":14},"usesPublishedFallback":false},"community":{"statedRates":0,"distinctSources":0,"sourceEntries":0,"excluded":{"seed_unverified":7,"no_rate":29},"usesPublishedFallback":true},"spontaneousReportShares":[{"source":"FDA FAERS — liraglutide — PANCREATITIS","url":"https://api.fda.gov/drug/event.json?search=patient.drug.openfda.generic_name:\"liraglutide\"","shareOfReports":0.054,"reports":2343,"totalReports":43057,"scrapedAt":"2026-04-07T04:01:00.683Z"},{"source":"FDA FAERS — exenatide — PANCREATITIS","url":"https://api.fda.gov/drug/event.json?search=patient.drug.openfda.generic_name:\"exenatide\"","shareOfReports":0.021,"reports":2011,"totalReports":94688,"scrapedAt":"2026-04-12T10:19:04.182Z"}],"spontaneousReportSharesWithheld":0,"spontaneousReportSharesNote":"`shareOfReports` is not a share of reports and not a share of patients. The collector reads openFDA's `count=patient.reaction.reactionmeddrapt.exact` endpoint, which ranks a drug's reaction terms by how many reports name each one, and keeps the top 30. `reports` is the count for this term; `totalReports` is the SUM of that 30-term list — so a report naming several reactions is counted under each of them, the denominator is a count of term-mentions rather than of reports, and every term outside the top 30 is in neither numerator nor denominator. Checked against the live endpoint on 2026-09-19: liraglutide's top-30 counts sum to 52,864 while openFDA returns 50,705 reports for the drug in total, so the two quantities are close in size and are not the same thing. Each row is also a snapshot from the day it was scraped (2026-04-07 to 2026-08-13; the newest FAERS row in the corpus is 2026-08-13) and is never refreshed, and this is structural rather than a lapsed schedule: the collector queries openFDA every day, but openFDA returns the same query URL for every reaction term of a drug and a row's identity in our store is that URL plus the effect, so a (drug, effect) pair already stored can never be re-read. Each published row now carries its own `scrapedAt` date so a reader does not have to trust a hand-typed example: liraglutide's PANCREATITIS count was 2,343 when scraped and 2,356 on 2026-09-19; semaglutide NAUSEA was 11,506 of an 82,377 top-30 sum (14.0%) and reads 10,674 of 97,939 (10.9%) on 2026-09-19. Rows whose stored `totalReports` is under 100 term-mentions are withheld entirely (count in `spontaneousReportSharesWithheld`) rather than published with a caveat — below that denominator the share carries no ranking information: orforglipron NAUSEA was scraped on 2026-04-08, when that drug's entire FAERS record held two term-mentions, so it had published `shareOfReports: 0.5` on `totalReports: 2` — one mention out of two — and cannot refresh (the same query on 2026-09-19 returns 179 of 1,154). A second row, orforglipron DYSPEPSIA scraped the same day on the same two-mention base, also published `shareOfReports: 0.5` (under acid reflux) until 2026-09-19, when its rate was withheld for a different reason — dyspepsia is not the term our acid-reflux incidence rows count — so it had already left this block before this rule. Read every published row as a dated ranking signal among a drug's most-reported terms, and take the current figure from openFDA directly. Field names are unchanged for API stability; this note states what they measure."},"dataPointsBySource":{"clinical":27,"regulatory":2,"user_report":10,"news":19},"sampleDataPoints":[{"sourceName":"Washington University comprehensive study (2025)","sourceType":"clinical","sourceUrl":"https://medicine.washu.edu/news/study-identifies-benefits-risks-linked-to-popular-weight-loss-drugs/","extractedRate":0.005,"extractedSeverity":"severe","extractedSampleSize":200,"extractionConfidence":"high","scrapedAt":"2026-04-06T11:45:17.713Z","excludedFromPublished":"2026-04-12 seed row: hand-written at the seed, not scraped, sourceUrl points back at magistra.health — excluded from dataPointCount above, from every published corpus total and from every rate base. Flagged here from 2026-09-20; until then it appeared in this sample indistinguishable from a scraped source, and for headache and fatigue it was 5 of the 5 rows shown."},{"sourceName":"Washington University comprehensive study (2025)","sourceType":"clinical","sourceUrl":"https://medicine.washu.edu/news/study-identifies-benefits-risks-linked-to-popular-weight-loss-drugs/","extractedRate":0.008,"extractedSeverity":"severe","extractedSampleSize":500,"extractionConfidence":"high","scrapedAt":"2026-04-06T11:45:17.713Z","excludedFromPublished":"2026-04-12 seed row: hand-written at the seed, not scraped, sourceUrl points back at magistra.health — excluded from dataPointCount above, from every published corpus total and from every rate base. Flagged here from 2026-09-20; until then it appeared in this sample indistinguishable from a scraped source, and for headache and fatigue it was 5 of the 5 rows shown."},{"sourceName":"Washington University comprehensive study (2025)","sourceType":"clinical","sourceUrl":"https://medicine.washu.edu/news/study-identifies-benefits-risks-linked-to-popular-weight-loss-drugs/","extractedRate":0.012,"extractedSeverity":"severe","extractedSampleSize":300,"extractionConfidence":"high","scrapedAt":"2026-04-06T11:45:17.713Z","excludedFromPublished":"2026-04-12 seed row: hand-written at the seed, not scraped, sourceUrl points back at magistra.health — excluded from dataPointCount above, from every published corpus total and from every rate base. Flagged here from 2026-09-20; until then it appeared in this sample indistinguishable from a scraped source, and for headache and fatigue it was 5 of the 5 rows shown."},{"sourceName":"FDA adverse event reports (2024-2025)","sourceType":"news","sourceUrl":"https://magistra.health/nl/science#pancreatitis","extractedRate":0.005,"extractedSeverity":"severe","extractedSampleSize":200,"extractionConfidence":"high","scrapedAt":"2026-04-06T11:45:17.713Z","excludedFromPublished":"2026-04-12 seed row: hand-written at the seed, not scraped, sourceUrl points back at magistra.health — excluded from dataPointCount above, from every published corpus total and from every rate base. Flagged here from 2026-09-20; until then it appeared in this sample indistinguishable from a scraped source, and for headache and fatigue it was 5 of the 5 rows shown."},{"sourceName":"FDA adverse event reports (2024-2025)","sourceType":"news","sourceUrl":"https://magistra.health/nl/science#pancreatitis","extractedRate":0.008,"extractedSeverity":"severe","extractedSampleSize":500,"extractionConfidence":"high","scrapedAt":"2026-04-06T11:45:17.713Z","excludedFromPublished":"2026-04-12 seed row: hand-written at the seed, not scraped, sourceUrl points back at magistra.health — excluded from dataPointCount above, from every published corpus total and from every rate base. Flagged here from 2026-09-20; until then it appeared in this sample indistinguishable from a scraped source, and for headache and fatigue it was 5 of the 5 rows shown."}],"lastUpdated":"2026-10-09"}